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Hey guys,

How long does it usually take for a swell to travel from buoy 51001 to the north shore of Oahu?

Thanks and keep up the great job!

David

David,

Well, that would depend on swell period and angle.

51001 buoy is 170 nm WNW from Hanalei Bay, Kauai and 255nm NW ~300 from Waimea Bay, Oahu.

For a NW swell around 300degrees on the 51001 buoy...

Wave period--Wave speed--Arrival time on North Shore

20sec--30kts--8.3 hrs

17sec--26kts--9.5 hrs

14sec--21kts--12 hrs

11sec--17kts--15 hrs

A more Northerly swell would arrive a little sooner on the North Shore and a more Westerly swell a little later. However, a WNW swell between 270-295 degrees has to contend with the Kauai shadow and will result in 50-70% less energy getting to the North Shore.

Hope this helps some, aloha,

Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Hey Guys, just want to give credit were credit is due..U guys took a little heat on your forcast for this last swell in the NE...I'd like to say that if i had to grade your performance over the past 5 years + it would go as this...Time swell will peak & who will see the most energy...99.5%...Swell size...90%...U guys do under cut the wave face size a little...but no bigge..& that LOLA...it's f'en scary how close it gets on when...!Everybody's been saying Magic Seawead this Magic Seaweed that...at least u guys don't have a map to all the surf breaks on your site..Ever since that Magic Seawead site has poped up..it has made other wise empty breaks in the New England area so over crouded it's like surf'en Ditch Planes on a Labor Day weekend with a 3 to 4' cleen swell running...FU$%%^&K..Next they will be car pooling people to the breaks...The NE is not the easest place in the world to forcast swells but all & all u guys do a damn good job...Keep up the good work...Long live LOLA...Sincerly,Brian.

Hi Brian,

Wow - thank you very much for the props! You are correct - we tend to be on the conservative side when forecasting wave heights - I think many surfers favor this sort of approach. Glad you scored some good swell from this system. I hope this fall/winter shapes up for you guys in the NE and you get some good surf!

Best,
Mike Watson
Surfline East Coast Manager/Forecaster

Hey guys,

Love that you are willing to answer any surf-related question that may come to mind. What a bad ass resource. Here's my latest. As the subject may have given away it's of a bathymetrical persuassion. I just read the feature on Pipe (which was awesome by the way) and the part stuck out at me about deepwater waves turning toward the shallower areas as they approach the coast. This makes sense, the part of the wave over deeper water will be going faster and hence take the lead and bend in toward the shallower area. I gather from the article as well as general intuition that this results in a focusing of energy and that bowl-like effect (kinda like at chopes, which i believe has a shallow shelf with that 90 degree bend in it so the wrapping effect can occur.

So my question is this: there are also some waves out there that from my understanding are as good as they are because of a deepwater trench right offshore (puerto escondido is the first that comes to mind). I could also imagine the logic there too: The wave energy is allowed straight through to where it breaks, without a shallow bottom sapping any energy. But the two thought processes together are rather contradictory: in the deepwater trench scenario wouldn't the wave energy bend to to shallower sides of trench - away from the beach or reef directly shorward? The pipe feature mentioned quickly something about waimea's deep water channel and that it takes a lot for swell to get in there. Can you clue me in on how this all fits together? Shallow reefs jutting out to bend energy in and focus it or deep water trenches to allow the energy straight through? Maybe both work and I am over analyzing? If so, it's not my fault, I'm at work on Friday afternoon, what else should I be doing but waxing complex on some aspect of the greatest activity on earth...

Thanks in advance for the knowledge,

Paul

Hi Paul,

Actually you're right but maybe a little misunderstood on how swell wraps through an underwater canyon.

When there is an underwater trench or canyon offshore like the ones at Puerto, Blacks, etc. the wave energy does focus toward the shallower edges of the canyon from the deeper water in the center of the canyon. The refraction of those waves will now proceed toward the beach at a different angle (depending on the angle of the canyon) and merge with other waves proceeding from the original swell direction. The two wave directions meeting in shallower water will wedge and combine extra swell energy into a larger, more powerful bowling wave. And as we know as being surfers, this will also create better shaped waves.

Something else that also happens is that the waves right at the mouth of the canyon are usually very small unless it is a shorter period swell that will be less affected by the underwater bathymetry of the canyon. But on longer period "deeper" swells the waves will be much larger on either side of the canyon up and down the beach where the refracted wave energy is merging with the original swell.

We also know that many marine harbors or boating launch areas along the coast are naturally located where the waves are smaller. As a result there are many marine harbors and/or boat launch spots right at the mouth of these offshore canyons where the waves are smaller, but once again the waves down the beach are much larger. Among these areas are Puerto Escondido Harbor, Blacks/Scripps Pier, Newport Pier/Point, Redondo Breakwall/King Harbor, Moss Landing, etc.

And lastly, underwater canyons very close to the coast may also represent something else. An earthquake fault. We have found that many known earthquake faults have actually created these canyons, like the Newport Inglewood fault that created the Newport Canyon off Newport Pier/Point. The fault on the land adjacent to the canyon offshore might not be so evident due to the millions of years of sand and dirt that has filled in the fault. But the ebb and flow of the waves and current in the ocean has kept the offshore canyon relatively free of sediment and more visible. As an example, we always knew the Redondo Canyon existed in LA County, we didn't know there was an earthquake fault there until we had an earthquake on it in the early 90's. That really freaked everybody out.

So when I'm looking for new surf spots around the world using the marine bathymetry charts, I'll also always also look for the underwater canyons near shore that might create bigger, better shaped waves. But I also can't help but to wonder if a canyon might also represent an earthquake fault that nobody knows about until it might happen to fracture someday. We may never know in our lifetime.

Here are a couple images of Blacks and the affects of the nearshore conyon.






Happy surf hunting!

Sean...

Two questions regarding Low Pressure Systems:

Why does the North and South Pacific produce the larger, more powerful storm systems in their respective winters? When thinking of Atlantic hurricane production, the warmer the water, the stronger the storm....what is the difference?

Are the large low pressure systems that form in the North Pacific the same basic systems moving eastward that max out Mavericks, Rincon, Swami's and Blacks, drop inches of rain on the Pacific Northwest, create chest deep powder in Colorado, damaging wind in Chicago, 5 feet of lake-effect snow in Cleveland and Buffalo and eventually head-high spitting barrels in New York and New Jersey?

Thanks! -Kyle

Kyle,

The Pacific is much larger than the Atlantic. In fact, the Pacific is roughly 1/3 the surface of the Earth. Therefore, large winter storms usually remain over the Pacific Ocean for a longer period of time as they track from West to East, toward the Americas. Therefore, the pacific will usually produce more and larger swells than the Atlantic, again 'usually'. However, the Atlantic will also see just as many and strong (sometimes even stronger) winter storm systems. Keep in mind that storms will constantly fluctuated their intensity with the interaction of the atmosphereic/geographic conditions at hand. And yes, many times the same storm will spin off Asia, plow through the Pacific with large surf for Hawaii and then the West Coast, slam into the Pacific Northwest with depressing cold rain, create some awesome powder for the Rocky Mtns, make a frozen tundra out of the Mid-West, lake effect snow and blizzards for the Great Lakes Region, insane but brain freezing hollow barrels for the Northeast with solid NE swells down to Florida, then victory-at-sea conditions for Europe. As well, many times it may be a completely different storm. Or a once feeble storm over the Pacific develops into a very strong Nor'Easter as it finally moves over the East coast and Atlantic, or vise-versa with the storm intensity. But I do want to make clear that the Atlantic can and will receive large and very strong storms in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. South Africa gets big/strong surf! From where? Strong storms of the South Atlantic. Or how about the XXL waves in Ireland?

Then there's the matter of where/why/how these storms develop. But that is a very in-depth subject of Meteorology and if I were to explain it, we would have a book at the end. Basically, temperature/pressure contrast of the earth.

Now; winter storms generally travel from West to East for both Hemispheres and the Pacific is much larger than the Atlantic. Keeping that in mind; without taking in account storm intensity/size, the longer a storm is over the ocean and travelling in a general direction toward a specific location (ie. the Pacific storms and the West Coast), then the potential is greater for larger/more powerful surf for that specific location. Which is why the West Coast will see bigger surf more often than the East Coast. In the Atlantic, these winter storms are moving away from the East Coast and remain over open ocean for a shorter period of time.

Storm movement is a key factor for why Hurricane swells are usually much more solid on the East Coast than the West Coast. Hurricanes in the Atlantic are usually traveling in a general direction of the East Coast, whereas they usually travel out to sea away from the West Coast in the Eastern Pacific. Also, the area of open ocean with warm surface waters (Hurricane fuel) is greater in the Tropical Atlantic than it is for the Eastern Tropical Pacific. This is largely due to the cold water current that runs down the West Coast. In-turn, the Atlantic has a warm water current (Gulf Stream) that runs up the East Coast, maintaining fuel for a tropical system well into the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic and even over toward Europe.

Anyways, here is a link to a BLOG that is has to do with North/South Hemi swell seasons. Kind of covers a different topic, but relative to the subject.

Another note; Hurricanes are a different kind of beast than Mid-Lat Frontal storms. These two systems have different mechanics at play for development.

Hope this helps some, cheers,


Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Dear Rad Forecasters,
I was wondering how does a riptide affect surf? I know that waves don't really break as well in the rip as they do in non-rip conditions, but i was told by a guy in the water last weekend that being on the other side of a rip on a breaking wave does cause it to bowl up (more so than usual). I didnt know if this was bogus or not. So basically my question is this, is it possible for a rip to improve the wave?

thanks!

Josh

Josh,

First off, here is a good link about rip tides in general - Rip Tides/Currents

From my personal experience (surfing beach-breaks my whole life, east coast and west) waves can and will break off rips.

For a couple reasons; in specific spots where rips are very prominent and hold strong for a length of time, a sandbar may form seaward and create almost like a point for waves to break off of (such as a river mouth). However, in most cases, rips are random and can form sporadically up and down the beach and at all magnitudes of strength. They can also slowly migrate along the coast in the long-shore current before breaking up. As well, with the water rushing out, an approaching wave will sometimes feel the opposing force and conform, or "bowl up" around the rip.

Now, you are right with the fact that waves don't break as well in the rip area as sections of the wave will break prematurely, there is usually some surface lump and bump to deal with, and there is lots of water moving around and turning over. However, like what the guy in the water was talking about, some waves will break off the rip and peel away from the rip.

As an example: I have found this set up many times at my local spot. Where a good size rip has formed (primarily holding up in one area), and the waves will bowl up and peak out at the top of the rip before peeling down the beach (away from the rip). I really felt like I was surfing a point break as I kept paddling back out to the same spot (just out of the actual rip to the left) and caught peeling rights all day.

Hope this helps some, cheers,

Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Hows it goin?

I wanted to ask a question about the WNW swell that came in on SUNDAY the 26th. On your initial report on thur-fri you guys were saying that it was going to be a NW and to steep for most of cali, but have some 3 to 4 ft. in SAN DIEGO. Sundays report for windansea says 3 to 4 occ. 5 ft. And when I click on the report for horsehoe it says 6-8 ft. @ 16 secs and more from the W then the north. Is there another model I can look at to see the changes in the direction?

Hey David-

Good questions. This swell did indeed come in from a very extreme angle, around 300 degrees, which blew right by average spots and had to at least partially 'wrap' into even the best exposed spots of South San Diego and parts of Southern Ventura. As I recall we were calling for slightly larger surf for South SD late last week (I believe it was either 3-4 occ 5 or 3-5'), based on both the long period and building NW swell on Sunday and also a decent amount of SSW swell running. This was in pretty good agreement, although a little low based on some of the reports I got from Blacks, Sunset Cliffs, etc, with our LOLA 7-day forecast and the actual observed conditions based on the Windansea report you mentioned below.

Now the Horseshoe page is actually what we call a LOLA surf spot model, based on a data point close to shore near the reef. For these surf spot models, the angle of the swell will be read after the swell is affected by the offshore bathymetry and can wrap into the area; thus, the model reads the swell as 'west' after the wrapping effect, although the true direction is more 'northwest'. A similar effect can be seen on the nearshore buoys, such as Torrey Pines.

Notice the red line (primary swell) of 2' at 18 seconds this past Sunday, with direction of 275 degrees. This nearshore buoy is getting a read on the swell after it has wrapped into the area, versus the true direction of the swell.

To get a better idea of the true direction of the swell, have a look at the buoys situated in the deeper water offshore and outside of the islands. Because these buoys are located in relatively deep water, the swell won't be able to 'feel' the bottom as much out there, limiting its ability to refract or wrap. Here's the buoy output from South Santa Rosa Island this past Sunday.

Notice that the swell is right around 300 degrees. If you click around a bit on some of the other outer buoys (San Nicholas, Harvest, Pt. Conception, etc.) you'll notice the swell was between 300-310 degrees on those buoys as well.

One last thing, even with all the above considered, the Horeshoe LOLA surf spot seemed to be running pretty hot on this past swell. We'll adjust the data output point and see if we can get a more accurate forecast for the break.

Kevin Wallis
Surfline Forecaster

hi guys!

so, i am checking your forecasts, and -- admittedly -- looking around at some other forecasts, just to triangulate the situation. i am a long island surfer and it looks like this weekend some time we're slated to get some 8' swells, clocking in at around10 seconds. the winds are up around 20something knots, but they're offshore so that could still be feasible. here's the rub: your premium forecast for that area says flat, flat, flat, all through these next few days. i trust you guys, and can't figure out which way to go -- you know i wanna believe the offshore 8' @ 10 secs thing :-). any thoughts? again, we're talking long island this weekend. thanks!

nick

Earlier in the week we received this question about the developing low off of the NC coast. Obviously, the forecast reasoning has changed a bit since Tuesday 10/14. It looks like LI should receive some pretty fun/good surf from this low. But this question can help better understand the processes that models/forecasters undergo in these highly dynamic situations.

Hi Nick,

We are looking at a tricky forecast situation. We have a low expected to form off of the NC coast. If this system tracks away from the region at a rapid rate, then you will indeed have flat surf Sunday and small E swell for Monday - this was the thinking when this forecast was produced yesterday (Tuesday 10/14). You will have to read the written discussion to see this further reasoning. If the low hangs around south of Nova Scotia, you may see some E swell by Monday (10/20). Unfortunately, the forecasted fetch offshore from this system over the weekend may have too much NE/ENE in it to really give LI anything significant for Sunday - but this is low confidence and there still is a chance for some lower end period windswell to get in then, but nothing approaching 8' @ 10s then (Sunday) - I suspect the forecasts you are looking at are showing combined sea heights and the model point where this is generated is likely well offshore of LI.

If you had checked the 12z forecast run for yesterday (Tuesday 10/14), you would see that the models were calling for 2-2.5 feet of deep water E swell with periods around 8-9 seconds for Monday (too much ENE in the swell for anything significant on Sunday). The 00z model run calls for 6' at 10s E swell for Monday and low period small swell with a bit too much NE/ENE for Sunday; the 06z run from today (Wednesday 10/15) is showing a little more of an E direction for Sunday but still lower period and still a bit too much ENE; similar size E swell is shown in the model for Monday as the 00z run - around 6' @ 10s. So as you can see, there is uncertainty in the longer range forecast from model run to model run although we are beginning to see some agreement from run to run on what will occur Monday. To further complicate things, there is also a model issue that arises with direction - the model only has 24 directions (every 15 degrees) so what may be a true NE/ENE swell bordering on ENE swell can be misrepresented as a ENE/E swell - this error can really affect LI significantly

Unfortunately, this is the nature of the EC weather and the current state of numerical weather models which drive the wave models. We have several things at work in the atmosphere that can make or break this swell and it is just a very difficult forecast. As we approach the 60-72 hour forecast time frame, we will gain more confidence in the model solutions and the written forecast solutions. So at this point, you simply need to keep checking the updated forecasts day to day - we don't want to overhype a swell especially when we are dealing with the potential for large model error beyond a 60-72 hour forecast for this situation.

One further thing that really throws a wrench into this is the change of season. Not only are we physically changing seasons, the models have to undergo this change as well. So we need to tread lightly when looking at these and really try to nail down where the error may/may not lie within these model solutions.

Hope this helps. Keep checking the updated written forecasts and we will get you dialed in - we continue to watch this very closely.

Best,
Mike Watson
Surfline East Coast Manager/Forecaster


And Nick's respectful and professional response on Friday:

Hi Mike,

This is phenomenal. I appreciate the in-depth color commentary. Really thorough stuff. Well, it looks like maybe something around Long Beach will be work-able for Sunday -- sure is my hope. Funny thing is, those "other" forecasts are just indicating the deep water stuff, and talking about 7ft swells around 10 seconds, etc. I will keep tracking your written report, and hope we get lucky! Again, thanks for all the thorough work. It's truly what sets you guys apart.

Nick

And today's response with some more input in the forecast situation:

Hi Nick,

If the other models are indicating the offshore combined swell heights of 7' @ 10s for Monday, they may not be too far off as far as these deep water combined swell heights; if this output is for Sunday then I think the swell period is overdone, at least for the early part of the day - we need to give the low pressure system time to impart its wind energy into the ocean. However what will really matter is how much of the combined offshore swell height is of an E component and how much is of the NE/ENE component which will affect what you will see at your local beach. The LOLA nearshores will really help out with separating the individual directions - LI LOLA Nearshore Model. There is plenty of E component in this with 5' @ 10s showing for Monday which is very reasonable. So while I still think W LI will struggle early Sunday, there should be some surf in the water for the second half of the day as everything develops over time. Monday is looking like it should be pretty fun. We are still watching this low and we are expecting it to wrap up quite nicely through the day on Sunday. Let us know what you see.

Best,
Mike

Surfline Crew,

How do I get Surfline on my Blackberry? When I type in surfline.com in my Blackberry Browser I get an error message, what am I doing wrong?

C.S.

Here's how to get Surfline, including forecasts, reports, buoys, surf news and surf alerts on your Blackberry. ** Screenshots may vary depending on the model of Blackberry and theme installed **

1. From the Blackberry home screen, scroll to the Blackberry Browser icon , and select by pushing down on the scroll ball.
2. Once the browser has loaded, click on the option button (the button with the Blackberry dots on the left of the scroll ball).
3. Scroll down and select Go To. Enter the Surfline mobile URL: http://mobile.surfline.com/b and push down on the scroll ball to confirm and load the URL.




How to make Surfline Mobile the homepage on the Blackberry browser
1. From the Blackberry browser, click the options button (the button with the Blackberry dots on the left of the scroll ball).
2. Select Bookmarks
3. Scroll down and select Homepage and click the scroll ball to confirm and load.
4. Enter the Surfline mobile URL: http://mobile.surfline.com/b
5. Push down on the scroll ball to confirm

Can I get streaming images on my iPhone?

YES. Streaming cameras are now available on the iPhone!

Premium Surfline members can watch live streaming on almost all of our 140 cameras.

On the iPhone, open 'http://mobile.surfline.com' in the browser and navigate to one of our camera pages. Underneath the camera image you'll see two links: 'start cam stream' and 'stop cam stream'. Simply click on the 'start cam stream' link and the image will begin updating.

Just wanted to ask about a discrepancy between "swell tracking map" and "surfline forecast" whereby the former claims it (in orange) will be 8-9 foot mon 13th oct and tues 14th oct. Surfline forecast, however, says 4-5 foot with shoulder to head high. This is a difference that may change travel plans. Many of my fellow surfline member friends down here have noticed this from time to time. any chance of having the forcasts collaborate to be more similar?> {That is a double over head to shoulder high comparison?}

Pura vida, and thanks, from Jason down here in Costa Rica.

Jason,

The LOLA Swell Track displays the model forecasted, raw deepwater swells running through the outer waters (not the surf heights). However, the relationship between swell size/angle/period and how a specific break is exposed/behaves to that particular swell will depend greatly on just how big the surf heights will actually be. Here is a recent blog on Swell Track for SoCal - BLOG

For Example - Swell Track for Costa Rica may display a 7-8' SW swell at 9 sec from 210 deg. Which due to the shorter period (most likely windswell in this case), good exposures may only see chest-head+ surf from it (other less exposed breaks even smaller).

The Surfline Forecast takes into account all the swells at play and will give the daily actual breaking wave heights for the good exposed breaks for the dominant swell at hand at the biggest time of the day. The written forecast should be used as the last word for actual surf heights, and (in your case) is primarily focused on central CR. Many other details will be included (such as wind, swell trend, tides, etc...) as the forecaster analyzes all the factors to produce a SURF forecast.

Hope this clears up any confusion, cheers

Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist