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SIGN UP for Surfline PremiumEMAIL this story to a friend Views: 29170
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By:
Kevin Wallis
Photos: Chris Burkard
November 4, 2008
We hate to sound like a broken record, but in certain instances we have to repeat ourselves.
And after looking at the long-range charts, November 2008 will be a rerun of our November 2007 Best Bet, which was also Central California. As such, we'll give you a little more of an outlook on the overall winter season in addition to this next month.
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97-98 were both strongly influenced by the warm water of an El Nino cycle. Of course, with the El Nino cycles, weather and conditions throughout California can be notoriously fickle with copious amounts of rain and onshore wind. You really have to be on your game to pick out the clean days between passing fronts. On the other end of the spectrum are the La Nina cycles, which prevailed through most of the winter of 2007-2008. During La Nina years, colder than normal sea surface temperatures prevail on the eastern half of the North Pacific and high pressure often dominates much of the more southern latitudes of the Eastern North Pacific as well. While this often leads to long stretches of pleasant weather and clean conditions, it also limits some of the really large and more westerly swells from developing. This is especially evident in Southern California, which can largely get shut out when the swells get too north. So what can we expect for this November in Central California and possibly beyond? First off, we're in an ENSO neutral phase in the North Pacific, as reported by the Climate Prediction Center, which means that neither strong El Nino or La Nina conditions will prevail this winter. So, getting no real significant clues from that, we'll have to go to the good old fashioned route of taking a look at the long range charts and models and have a good look at the factors that will ultimately determine the size and consistency of surf: the interaction of high and low pressure systems throughout the North Pacific. Just to be clear, high pressure is associated with fair weather and light wind. When high pressure is the dominant feature in the North Pacific, it forces any storms developing off Siberia and Japan into the upper latitudes and even over landmasses like Alaska and the Arctic. Obviously storms over land aren't going to create too much swell, so high pressure isn't really our friend in this regard. But, when a ridge of high pressure floats over the far eastern half of the Pacific and/or extends through the Western U.S. like a safety blanket and also protect us from bad weather and allow plenty of storm activity throughout the rest of the North Pacific, then we're stoked. This is, fortunately, the scenario that looks likely for a good chunk of November. By the time you read this, we'll be on the tail end of passing fronts, some stormy weather and also a pretty good size West swell for the first weekend in November. Conditions will likely improve quite a bit through the middle part of the month, with smaller but also cleaner and fun size surf during much of that time. We should see lots of days with sunny beach weather, relatively warm temps and light wind with clean/glassy conditions. Don't forget that the South Pacific isn't quite done spitting out swells either, and we'll see the occasional bump of Southern Hemi swell mix for some nice sessions at the beachbreaks thanks to combo swells. It appears that larger, but possibly still fairly clean, surf will redevelop over the course of the middle to second half of the month so get out and enjoy the wide open spaces along with plenty of days of great conditions that Central California will have to offer. BEST BET OCTOBER RECAP: FRANCE  Well, Octobre était un mois solide pour les vagues en France (Translation: October was a solid month for waves in France). Much like California, the fall season in France is usually great for surfing as well, as winter frontal storms begin to spin off North America and churn up the waters of the North Atlantic. October 2008 definitely produced as it started out with a solid pulse of NW swell on the 2nd/3rd and continued all month with a consistent run of more West and Northwest swells. Ending the month was yet another good size WNW swell that came through for Halloween before dropping out in the beginning of November. Furthermore, there were many days where clear skies and offshore winds prevailed. Although solid swells (and mostly likely bigger swells) will continue to charge France as we move further into the winter season, the number of days with good conditions will decrease as Europe will more frequently receive the bad weather brought on by the cold fronts. Overall, La France est révélée un grand "Best Bet" au mois d'octobre! -- Jonathan Warren
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